In the dynamic non-alcoholic beverage sector, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) and Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) stand out with distinct approaches. KDP leverages a broad portfolio of iconic brands and established distribution networks, while CELH focuses on innovative functional energy drinks targeting health-conscious consumers. Both companies compete for market share and growth through innovation and consumer trends. This article will guide you through their strengths to reveal which is the more compelling investment opportunity.
Table of contents
Companies Overview
I will begin the comparison between Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Celsius Holdings, Inc. by providing an overview of these two companies and their main differences.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. Overview
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. is a major player in the non-alcoholic beverages sector, operating primarily in the United States and internationally. The company manufactures and distributes a wide range of beverages including coffee systems, packaged drinks, and beverage concentrates under well-known brands like Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, and Snapple. Founded in 1981 and headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts, it serves a broad customer base including retailers, restaurants, and consumers with a workforce of 29,000 employees.
Celsius Holdings, Inc. Overview
Celsius Holdings, Inc. focuses on developing, marketing, and distributing functional drinks and liquid supplements globally, with a presence in North America, Europe, and Asia. Its product line includes carbonated and non-carbonated energy drinks under brands such as CELSIUS Originals and CELSIUS HEAT. Founded in 2004 and headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida, Celsius targets health-conscious consumers through diverse retail channels including supermarkets, gyms, and e-commerce, supported by a staff of around 1,073 employees.
Key similarities and differences
Both companies operate in the non-alcoholic beverages industry and distribute products through multiple retail channels. However, Keurig Dr Pepper has a broader portfolio covering coffee systems, packaged beverages, and regional drinks with a large employee base and extensive global reach. In contrast, Celsius specializes in functional energy drinks and supplements, focusing on health and fitness markets with a smaller scale and more targeted product range. Their business models reflect these distinctions in product diversity and market segmentation.
Income Statement Comparison
This table presents a side-by-side comparison of key income statement metrics for Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Celsius Holdings, Inc. for the fiscal year 2024.
| Metric | Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) | Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | 37.6B | 13.7B |
| Revenue | 15.4B | 1.36B |
| EBITDA | 3.38B | 163M |
| EBIT | 2.65B | 156M |
| Net Income | 1.44B | 145M |
| EPS | 1.06 | 0.46 |
| Fiscal Year | 2024 | 2024 |
Income Statement Interpretations
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP)
Keurig Dr Pepper’s revenue rose steadily from $11.6B in 2020 to $15.4B in 2024, with net income increasing modestly by 8.75% over the period. Margins show strength, with a gross margin of 55.56% and net margin near 9.39%. In 2024, revenue growth slowed to 3.62%, while net income and EBIT declined notably, signaling margin pressure.
Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH)
Celsius Holdings experienced rapid revenue growth, surging by 937% from $130M in 2020 to $1.36B in 2024, alongside a 1602% jump in net income. Gross margin was 50.18% in 2024, with a net margin of 10.7%. However, 2024 saw a slowdown in revenue growth to 2.85% and a sharp drop in EBIT and net margin, indicating recent operational challenges.
Which one has the stronger fundamentals?
Both companies show favorable income statement fundamentals but differ in scale and growth. KDP offers stable revenue and margin profiles with solid profitability, though recent earnings dipped. CELH boasts explosive growth and improving margins overall but faces recent declines in profitability metrics. KDP’s scale and margin stability contrast with CELH’s higher growth volatility.
Financial Ratios Comparison
Below is a comparison of the most recent financial ratios for Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) and Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) based on fiscal year 2024 data.
| Ratios | Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) | Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 5.94% | 11.85% |
| ROIC | 4.04% | 8.25% |
| P/E | 30.36 | 42.43 |
| P/B | 1.80 | 5.03 |
| Current Ratio | 0.49 | 3.62 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.33 | 3.26 |
| D/E (Debt to Equity) | 0.71 | 0.02 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 32.33% | 1.15% |
| Interest Coverage | 3.79 | 0 |
| Asset Turnover | 0.29 | 0.77 |
| Fixed Asset Turnover | 3.99 | 17.51 |
| Payout ratio | 82.86% | 18.96% |
| Dividend yield | 2.73% | 0.45% |
Interpretation of the Ratios
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
Keurig Dr Pepper’s ratios show several weaknesses, notably a low return on equity (5.94%) and return on invested capital (4.04%), both unfavorable. The company also has a low current ratio (0.49), indicating potential liquidity concerns. However, its dividend yield of 2.73% is favorable, supported by a stable payout and shareholder returns, although cautious monitoring is advised to ensure sustainability.
Celsius Holdings, Inc.
Celsius Holdings displays stronger profitability with a favorable net margin of 10.7% and neutral to favorable returns on equity (11.85%) and invested capital (8.25%). The firm maintains a robust quick ratio (3.26) and minimal debt levels, reflecting solid financial health. It does not pay dividends, likely reinvesting earnings to support growth and operational expansion in a competitive market.
Which one has the best ratios?
Comparing the two, Celsius Holdings holds a more favorable overall financial profile with 50% favorable ratios versus Keurig Dr Pepper’s 21.43%. Despite some unfavorable metrics such as a high price-to-earnings ratio, Celsius’s liquidity, leverage, and profitability ratios generally outperform those of Keurig Dr Pepper, which faces several liquidity and return challenges.
Strategic Positioning
This section compares the strategic positioning of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) and Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) focusing on market position, key segments, and exposure to technological disruption:
KDP
- Large market cap of 37.6B with established brands in beverages.
- Diversified segments: Coffee Systems, Packaged Beverages, Beverage Concentrates, Latin America Beverages.
- Operates in traditional beverage manufacturing with no explicit mention of technological disruption risks.
CELH
- Smaller market cap of 13.7B focusing on functional energy drinks.
- Concentrated on functional drinks and liquid supplements across multiple regions.
- Markets innovative functional energy drinks but no direct data on technology disruption exposure.
KDP vs CELH Positioning
KDP adopts a diversified approach with multiple beverage segments and established brands, offering scale advantages but facing competitive pressure in mature markets. CELH focuses narrowly on functional drinks, benefiting from niche growth but with less diversification.
Which has the best competitive advantage?
Based on MOAT evaluation, CELH shows a slightly favorable position with growing profitability, while KDP is very unfavorable, shedding value and experiencing declining returns, indicating CELH currently holds a better competitive advantage.
Stock Comparison
The stock prices of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) and Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) have exhibited notable bearish trends over the past 12 months, with KDP showing a milder decline and CELH experiencing more pronounced volatility and sharper losses.
Trend Analysis
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) showed a bearish trend over the past 12 months with an 8.25% price decline, accelerating downward despite a recent slight 1.99% positive move signaling potential stabilization. The stock ranged between 25.5 and 37.61.
Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) experienced a stronger bearish trend with a 17.11% price drop over the same period, marked by high volatility (std deviation 18.64) and accelerating losses, including a steep recent decline of 11.85%.
Comparing both, KDP delivered the higher market performance with a smaller overall decline and signs of recent recovery, whereas CELH faced steeper losses and greater price instability.
Target Prices
The current analyst consensus on target prices reflects moderate upside potential for both Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Celsius Holdings, Inc.
| Company | Target High | Target Low | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | 38 | 24 | 32 |
| Celsius Holdings, Inc. | 74 | 60 | 68.33 |
Analysts expect Keurig Dr Pepper’s stock to appreciate moderately from its current price of $27.7 to around $32 on average. Celsius Holdings shows a higher target consensus of $68.33 compared to its current price of $53.09, indicating stronger growth expectations.
Analyst Opinions Comparison
This section compares analysts’ ratings and financial scores for Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) and Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH):
Rating Comparison
KDP Rating
- Rating: B, rated as Very Favorable by analysts.
- Discounted Cash Flow Score: 4, indicating a favorable valuation based on future cash flows.
- ROE Score: 3, reflecting moderate efficiency in generating profit from equity.
- ROA Score: 3, demonstrating moderate asset utilization effectiveness.
- Debt To Equity Score: 2, moderate financial risk with a balanced debt profile.
- Overall Score: 3, a moderate overall financial standing.
CELH Rating
- Rating: C+, also rated as Very Favorable.
- Discounted Cash Flow Score: 3, showing a moderate valuation outlook.
- ROE Score: 2, indicating moderate but lower efficiency than KDP.
- ROA Score: 2, showing moderate but weaker asset utilization.
- Debt To Equity Score: 3, slightly higher score suggesting more conservative leverage.
- Overall Score: 2, indicating a moderate but lower overall standing compared to KDP.
Which one is the best rated?
Based strictly on the provided data, KDP has a higher rating (B vs. C+) and scores better across discounted cash flow, ROE, ROA, and overall financial standing. CELH shows a higher debt-to-equity score but lower overall scores, making KDP the better-rated company in this comparison.
Scores Comparison
Here is a comparison of the financial scores of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Celsius Holdings, Inc.:
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. Scores
- Altman Z-Score: 1.33, in distress zone indicating higher bankruptcy risk.
- Piotroski Score: 6, average financial strength.
Celsius Holdings, Inc. Scores
- Altman Z-Score: 3.66, in safe zone indicating low bankruptcy risk.
- Piotroski Score: 5, average financial strength.
Which company has the best scores?
Based on the provided data, Celsius Holdings has a better Altman Z-Score, clearly in the safe zone, while Keurig Dr Pepper is in the distress zone. Both have average Piotroski Scores, with Keurig Dr Pepper slightly higher.
Grades Comparison
Here is the detailed grades comparison for Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Celsius Holdings, Inc.:
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. Grades
The table below summarizes recent grades from verified grading companies for Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
| Grading Company | Action | New Grade | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | Downgrade | Hold | 2025-12-17 |
| Piper Sandler | Maintain | Overweight | 2025-12-15 |
| Barclays | Maintain | Equal Weight | 2025-10-28 |
| Wells Fargo | Maintain | Overweight | 2025-10-28 |
| JP Morgan | Maintain | Overweight | 2025-10-20 |
| B of A Securities | Maintain | Buy | 2025-10-08 |
| Goldman Sachs | Maintain | Neutral | 2025-10-02 |
| Wells Fargo | Maintain | Overweight | 2025-09-25 |
| Barclays | Downgrade | Equal Weight | 2025-09-24 |
| BNP Paribas | Downgrade | Underperform | 2025-09-22 |
Overall, the grades for Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. show a mixed trend with several downgrades and a range of opinions from Buy to Underperform.
Celsius Holdings, Inc. Grades
The table below summarizes recent grades from verified grading companies for Celsius Holdings, Inc.
| Grading Company | Action | New Grade | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Needham | Maintain | Buy | 2026-01-07 |
| B of A Securities | Maintain | Underperform | 2025-12-19 |
| Piper Sandler | Maintain | Overweight | 2025-12-17 |
| B of A Securities | Maintain | Underperform | 2025-11-07 |
| Stifel | Maintain | Buy | 2025-11-07 |
| JP Morgan | Maintain | Overweight | 2025-11-07 |
| Citigroup | Maintain | Buy | 2025-11-07 |
| UBS | Maintain | Buy | 2025-11-07 |
| Stifel | Maintain | Buy | 2025-10-24 |
| JP Morgan | Maintain | Overweight | 2025-10-24 |
Celsius Holdings, Inc. demonstrates a generally positive grade trend, with the majority of ratings indicating Buy or Overweight, despite a couple of Underperform ratings from B of A Securities.
Which company has the best grades?
Celsius Holdings, Inc. has received generally stronger and more consistent Buy and Overweight grades compared to Keurig Dr Pepper Inc., which shows mixed ratings including downgrades. This suggests Celsius Holdings may be viewed more favorably by analysts, potentially impacting investor sentiment towards a more positive outlook.
Strengths and Weaknesses
The table below compares key strengths and weaknesses of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) and Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) based on recent financial and strategic data.
| Criterion | Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) | Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) |
|---|---|---|
| Diversification | Strong product diversification with multiple beverage segments including Coffee Systems, Beverage Concentrates, and Packaged Beverages totaling over 10B USD in key categories | Limited product range focused mainly on energy drinks with 1.35B USD revenue concentrated in a single segment |
| Profitability | Moderate net margin at 9.39%, but ROIC (4.04%) below WACC (4.69%), indicating value destruction and declining profitability | Higher net margin at 10.7%, ROIC (8.25%) above WACC (7.92%), signaling improving profitability and value creation |
| Innovation | Limited recent innovation impact, with declining ROIC trend suggesting challenges in sustaining competitive advantage | Strong innovation-driven growth with an 11.4% ROIC increase, showing expanding market presence and improving returns |
| Global presence | Established global footprint, especially in Latin America Beverages segment, contributing significant revenue | Mostly focused on US market with limited global footprint so far |
| Market Share | Large market share in packaged beverages and coffee pods, but facing operational efficiency issues | Smaller market share but rapidly growing in functional energy drinks niche |
Key takeaways: KDP benefits from strong diversification and global reach but struggles with declining profitability and value destruction. CELH shows promising growth and improving profitability driven by innovation, though it remains less diversified and more niche-focused. I recommend cautious monitoring of KDP’s turnaround efforts and consider CELH for growth exposure with attention to valuation risks.
Risk Analysis
Below is a comparative risk overview of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) and Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) for the year 2024:
| Metric | Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) | Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) |
|---|---|---|
| Market Risk | Low beta (0.35) reduces volatility risk | Moderate beta (0.88) implies higher market sensitivity |
| Debt level | Moderate debt-to-assets (32.33%) | Very low debt-to-assets (1.15%) |
| Regulatory Risk | Moderate; beverage industry regulations stable | Moderate; functional drinks face evolving health regulations |
| Operational Risk | Large scale operations with diversified segments | Smaller scale, potential execution risks in expansion |
| Environmental Risk | Moderate; packaging and water usage concerns | Emerging focus on sustainability but less exposure |
| Geopolitical Risk | US and Latin America exposure; moderate geopolitical stability | Primarily US and international markets; less geopolitical risk |
Synthesizing these risks, KDP’s moderate debt and low market volatility position it as relatively stable, though operational complexity and environmental factors require monitoring. CELH’s low debt and favorable liquidity are strengths, yet its higher market sensitivity and regulatory scrutiny on functional beverages pose notable risks. The most impactful risk currently is CELH’s market volatility and regulatory changes, which could affect growth momentum.
Which Stock to Choose?
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) shows favorable income statement metrics with stable gross and EBIT margins, although recent net margin and EPS growth declined. Its financial ratios are slightly unfavorable, with challenges in ROE and asset turnover, and the company carries moderate debt. The overall rating is very favorable, but the Altman Z-score indicates financial distress, and its ROIC is below WACC with a declining trend, signaling value destruction.
Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) displays favorable income growth over the long term with strong net margin and improving profitability despite recent declines. Its financial ratios are slightly favorable, supported by low debt levels and strong liquidity, though valuation multiples are high. CELH’s rating is very favorable, with a healthy Altman Z-score in the safe zone and a growing ROIC trend, suggesting improving profitability and potential value creation.
For risk-averse investors prioritizing financial stability and improving profitability, CELH’s stronger liquidity and positive ROIC trend may appear more favorable. Conversely, investors focused on established businesses with a larger market cap and consistent income generation might see KDP’s stable income metrics and rating as appealing despite its financial challenges.
Disclaimer: Investment carries a risk of loss of initial capital. The past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Be sure to understand risks before making an investment decision.
Go Further
I encourage you to read the complete analyses of Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Celsius Holdings, Inc. to enhance your investment decisions:
