UPS vs CHRW: Which Freight Stock Offers Better Value?

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The strategic rivalry between United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) and C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) shapes the Integrated Freight & Logistics sector’s evolution. UPS operates as a capital-intensive global logistics giant with extensive air and ground delivery fleets. In contrast, CHRW excels as a high-margin freight brokerage and supply chain solutions provider with a leaner asset base. This analysis will identify which model offers superior risk-adjusted returns for diversified portfolios in 2026.

Table of contents

• Companies Overview
• Income Statement Comparison
• Financial Ratios Comparison
• How are the two companies positioned?
• Which stock offers better returns?
• How do institutions grade them?
• Risks specific to each company
• Final Verdict: Which stock to choose?

Companies Overview

United Parcel Service, Inc. and C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. stand as pivotal players in the integrated freight and logistics sector.

United Parcel Service, Inc.: Global Logistics Powerhouse

United Parcel Service, Inc. dominates as a global leader in package delivery and logistics. Its core revenue stems from U.S. Domestic and International Package services, offering time-definite deliveries across 200 countries. In 2026, UPS emphasizes expanding its supply chain solutions and leveraging its vast fleet of 121,000 vehicles to enhance operational efficiency and customer reach.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.: Freight Brokerage Specialist

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. excels as a freight transportation and logistics broker. It generates revenue through North American Surface Transportation and Global Forwarding, connecting shippers with 85,000 carriers worldwide. The company’s 2026 strategy focuses on advanced managed transportation services and expanding its fresh produce logistics under the Robinson Fresh brand.

Strategic Collision: Similarities & Divergences

UPS pursues a closed ecosystem integrating physical assets and technology, while C.H. Robinson relies on an open network of carriers and brokers. Their competition centers on market share in freight brokerage and logistics technology. UPS offers a capital-intensive model, contrasting with C.H. Robinson’s asset-light, service-driven profile, defining distinct risk and growth dynamics for investors.

Income Statement Comparison

This data dissects the core profitability and scalability of both corporate engines to reveal who dominates the bottom line:

Metric	United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)	C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW)
Revenue	88.6B	16.2B
Cost of Revenue	53.2B	14.9B
Operating Expenses	27.5B	564M
Gross Profit	35.4B	1.4B
EBITDA	11.0B	888M
EBIT	8.2B	786M
Interest Expense	1.0B	63M
Net Income	5.6B	587M
EPS	6.57	4.88
Fiscal Year	2025	2025

Income Statement Analysis: The Bottom-Line Duel

This income statement comparison reveals which company operates its corporate engine with superior efficiency and sustainable profitability.

United Parcel Service, Inc. Analysis

UPS’s revenue declined from 100B in 2022 to 88.6B in 2025, while net income halved from 11.5B to 5.57B. Its gross margin stands strong near 40%, but net margin slipped to 6.3%, reflecting rising expenses and shrinking earnings. Despite a favorable gross margin, recent trends show weakening profitability and efficiency.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. Analysis

CHRW’s revenue dropped sharply from 24.7B in 2022 to 16.2B in 2025, with net income declining from 940M to 587M. Its gross margin hovers at a modest 8.4%, with a net margin of 3.6%. However, CHRW improved net margin and earnings growth last year, demonstrating better operational momentum despite lower scale.

Margin Strength vs. Momentum Resilience

UPS commands higher revenue and gross margins but faces pressure on net income and margins over five years. CHRW operates with slimmer margins and scale but shows recent margin and earnings growth. UPS’s scale and margin power lead fundamentally, yet CHRW’s improving profitability profile offers a compelling case for momentum-focused investors.

Financial Ratios Comparison

These vital ratios act as a diagnostic tool to expose the underlying fiscal health, valuation premiums, and capital efficiency of each company:

Ratios	United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)	C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW)
ROE	34.34%	27.04%
ROIC	10.44%	15.36%
P/E	15.11	26.58
P/B	5.19	7.19
Current Ratio	1.22	1.28
Quick Ratio	1.22	1.28
D/E (Debt-to-Equity)	1.53	1.01
Debt-to-Assets	34.05%	32.86%
Interest Coverage	7.78	7.44
Asset Turnover	1.21	3.35
Fixed Asset Turnover	2.11	38.37
Payout ratio	96.88%	63.30%
Dividend yield	6.41%	2.38%
Fiscal Year	2025	2024

Efficiency & Valuation Duel: The Vital Signs

Financial ratios act as the company’s DNA, exposing hidden risks and operational strengths critical to investment decisions.

United Parcel Service, Inc.

UPS exhibits strong profitability with a favorable 34.34% ROE and a solid 10.44% ROIC, both comfortably above its 7.39% WACC. Its P/E ratio at 15.11 signals a neutral valuation, while a high P/B of 5.19 suggests some price stretch. UPS returns value with a 6.41% dividend yield, balancing shareholder rewards and steady cash flow.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.

CHRW shows respectable profitability, featuring a 27.04% ROE and an impressive 15.36% ROIC, both above its 7.78% WACC. However, the stock trades at a stretched P/E of 26.58 and P/B of 7.19, reflecting elevated valuation risk. Its 2.38% dividend yield indicates moderate shareholder returns amid ongoing operational efficiency.

Valuation Stretch vs. Operational Efficiency

UPS offers a more balanced risk-reward profile with robust profitability and moderate valuation multiples. CHRW delivers higher operational efficiency but at a premium price, increasing risk. UPS suits investors seeking stable income and valuation discipline; CHRW fits those prioritizing growth despite valuation stretch.

Which one offers the Superior Shareholder Reward?

I compare UPS and C.H. Robinson’s shareholder rewards by examining dividends, payout ratios, and buyback intensity. UPS yields 6.4% with a payout ratio near 97%, sustaining dividends through a robust free cash flow of 5.6B. Its buybacks are steady but moderate. C.H. Robinson yields 2.4%, with a 63% payout, favoring buybacks more aggressively relative to cash flow. UPS’s high yield, backed by consistent FCF coverage, offers sustainability. C.H. Robinson’s lower yield and higher buyback focus imply growth reinvestment but with more risk. I conclude UPS provides the superior total return profile for income-focused investors in 2026.

Comparative Score Analysis: The Strategic Profile

The radar chart reveals the fundamental DNA and trade-offs of United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) and C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW), highlighting their financial strengths and vulnerabilities:

UPS excels in discounted cash flow (4 vs. 3) and return on assets (4 vs. 5), showing solid cash generation but slightly less asset efficiency than CHRW. Both share peak return on equity (5), demonstrating strong shareholder value creation. UPS’s debt-to-equity score (1) flags higher leverage risk compared to CHRW’s moderate (2) score, indicating CHRW’s cleaner balance sheet. Valuation metrics reveal both firms face challenges, with low price-to-book scores (1) and CHRW’s P/E score (2) slightly more conservative than UPS (3). Overall, CHRW presents a more balanced financial profile, while UPS leans on cash flow strength but carries heavier debt risk.

Bankruptcy Risk: Solvency Showdown

UPS’s Altman Z-Score of 2.98 places it in the grey zone, signaling moderate bankruptcy risk, while CHRW’s robust 9.35 score firmly situates it in the safe zone:

This stark contrast suggests CHRW possesses a far stronger buffer against economic downturns and financial distress. UPS’s precarious leverage exposes it to higher vulnerability in volatile markets.

Financial Health: Quality of Operations

Both UPS and CHRW score a strong 7 on the Piotroski F-Score, indicating solid internal financial health and operational quality:

Neither company flags internal red alerts, but UPS’s heavier debt load remains a caution. Their strong Piotroski scores confirm efficient profitability, liquidity, and leverage management relative to peers.

How are the two companies positioned?

This section dissects UPS and CHRW’s operational DNA by comparing revenue distribution and internal strengths and weaknesses. The goal is to confront their economic moats and identify which model offers the most resilient competitive advantage today.

Revenue Segmentation: The Strategic Mix

The following visual comparison dissects how United Parcel Service, Inc. and C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. diversify their income streams and where their primary sector bets lie:

UPS anchors its revenue in a dominant U.S. Domestic Package segment at $40.8B (2017), supplemented by significant International Package ($13.3B) and Supply Chain & Freight ($11.8B) streams. In contrast, C.H. Robinson leans heavily on Transportation Customer’s Freight at $16.4B (2024) with a smaller Sourcing segment of $1.37B. UPS’s broader diversification reduces concentration risk and leverages infrastructure dominance. C.H. Robinson’s reliance on freight volume pivots on global logistics efficiency but carries higher exposure to transportation market cycles.

Strengths and Weaknesses Comparison

This table compares the strengths and weaknesses of UPS and CHRW based on diversification, profitability, financial health, innovation, global presence, and market share:

UPS demonstrates a robust domestic market and balanced international segments with solid profitability measures but faces leverage and valuation challenges. CHRW benefits from efficient capital deployment and diversified services yet shows weaker margins and higher valuation risks. Both companies must navigate leverage and profitability trade-offs impacting strategic flexibility.

The Moat Duel: Analyzing Competitive Defensibility

A structural moat alone protects long-term profits from relentless competitive pressures and margin erosion. Here’s how UPS and C.H. Robinson stack up:

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS): Network Effects and Scale Moat

UPS leverages vast logistics infrastructure and global reach as its moat. This manifests in stable margins and ROIC exceeding WACC by 3%, despite a declining trend. Expansion into supply chain solutions could deepen this moat in 2026.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW): Cost Advantage and Brokerage Network

CHRW’s moat centers on its extensive transportation brokerage network and cost efficiency. It outperforms UPS with a ROIC premium of 7.6%, showing better value creation. Growth in managed transportation services offers upside amid tightening industry competition.

Moat Strength Showdown: Scale vs. Brokerage Network Efficiency

Both companies create value with ROIC above WACC, yet CHRW’s higher ROIC premium signals a wider moat. UPS’s scale is formidable but challenged by declining profitability. CHRW is better positioned to defend its market share through cost leadership and network agility.

Which stock offers better returns?

The past year showed divergent price movements for United Parcel Service and C.H. Robinson, with UPS facing steep declines and CHRW surging strongly, highlighting contrasting trading dynamics.

Trend Comparison

United Parcel Service’s stock fell 31.01% over the last 12 months, marking a bearish trend with accelerating decline and high volatility, hitting lows near 83 and highs above 156.

C.H. Robinson’s stock gained 169.08% over the same period, exhibiting a bullish trend with accelerating momentum and elevated volatility, peaking near 195 and bottoming around 70.

C.H. Robinson outperformed UPS significantly, delivering the highest market returns with sustained acceleration and stronger buyer dominance.

Target Prices

Analysts present a broad yet optimistic target consensus for UPS and C.H. Robinson Worldwide, reflecting confidence in their logistics leadership.

Company	Target Low	Target High	Consensus
United Parcel Service, Inc.	85	128	110.6
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.	90	220	184.19

The UPS consensus target price of 110.6 slightly exceeds its current 106.22 price, suggesting moderate upside. C.H. Robinson’s 184.19 target consensus is just below the current 194.95, indicating a cautious view despite its recent strength.

How do institutions grade them?

The following tables summarize recent institutional grades for United Parcel Service, Inc. and C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.:

United Parcel Service, Inc. Grades

Here are the latest grades from respected grading companies for UPS:

Grading Company	Action	New Grade	Date
Stephens & Co.	Maintain	Equal Weight	2026-01-28
Jefferies	Maintain	Buy	2026-01-28
Oppenheimer	Maintain	Outperform	2026-01-28
Truist Securities	Maintain	Buy	2026-01-28
UBS	Maintain	Buy	2026-01-28
Wells Fargo	Maintain	Equal Weight	2026-01-28
Citigroup	Maintain	Buy	2026-01-28
JP Morgan	Maintain	Neutral	2026-01-28
Stifel	Maintain	Buy	2026-01-28
Deutsche Bank	Maintain	Hold	2026-01-28

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. Grades

Below are the recent grades from reputable grading companies for CHRW:

Grading Company	Action	New Grade	Date
Citigroup	Maintain	Neutral	2026-01-30
Benchmark	Maintain	Buy	2026-01-30
Stifel	Maintain	Buy	2026-01-29
Evercore ISI Group	Maintain	Outperform	2026-01-29
Morgan Stanley	Maintain	Underweight	2026-01-29
Truist Securities	Maintain	Buy	2026-01-29
Wells Fargo	Maintain	Overweight	2026-01-29
Susquehanna	Maintain	Positive	2026-01-29
UBS	Maintain	Buy	2026-01-23
Truist Securities	Maintain	Buy	2026-01-15

Which company has the best grades?

Both companies receive mostly positive ratings, but UPS has a higher concentration of “Buy” and “Outperform” grades from large firms. CHRW has mixed opinions, including an “Underweight” from Morgan Stanley. UPS’s stronger consensus may signal more institutional confidence, impacting investor sentiment.

Risks specific to each company

The following categories identify critical pressure points and systemic threats facing both firms in the 2026 market environment:

1. Market & Competition

2. Capital Structure & Debt

3. Stock Volatility

4. Regulatory & Legal

5. Supply Chain & Operations

6. ESG & Climate Transition

7. Geopolitical Exposure

Which company shows a better risk-adjusted profile?

UPS’s most impactful risk is its elevated leverage and associated financial risk amid competitive pressures. CHRW’s primary risk lies in its lower profit margins and pricing pressures despite strong operational efficiency. CHRW demonstrates a better risk-adjusted profile with safer leverage metrics, higher Altman Z-Score in the safe zone, and stronger asset utilization. UPS’s higher debt-to-equity ratio and moderate Altman Z-Score in the grey zone justify caution despite its scale advantages.

Final Verdict: Which stock to choose?

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) excels as a cash-generating powerhouse with a robust economic moat built on efficient capital use and strong returns on equity. Its main point of vigilance remains a declining profitability trend and moderate leverage, which may challenge stability in downturns. UPS fits well in portfolios seeking aggressive growth with a tolerance for cyclical risks.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) leverages a distinct strategic moat through asset-light operations and superior capital efficiency, delivering higher returns on invested capital relative to its cost of capital. It offers better financial stability and a cleaner balance sheet than UPS, making it attractive for investors favoring growth at a reasonable price with a defensive tilt.

If you prioritize aggressive growth and can tolerate cyclical swings, UPS is the compelling choice due to its strong cash generation and high return on equity. However, if you seek a more stable growth profile with superior capital efficiency and less leverage, CHRW offers better stability and a cleaner balance sheet, though it commands a premium valuation.

Disclaimer: Investment carries a risk of loss of initial capital. The past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Be sure to understand risks before making an investment decision.

Go Further

I encourage you to read the complete analyses of United Parcel Service, Inc. and C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. to enhance your investment decisions:

• United Parcel Service, Inc. Analysis
• C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. Analysis