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The strategic rivalry between Gartner, Inc. and BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. shapes the evolution of the technology sector. Gartner operates as a capital-intensive research and advisory powerhouse, while BigBear.ai focuses on high-growth AI-driven consulting and analytics services. This head-to-head pits established market leadership against innovative disruption. This analysis aims to identify which corporate trajectory offers superior risk-adjusted returns for a diversified portfolio in today’s dynamic tech landscape.
Table of contents
Companies Overview
Gartner, Inc. and BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. stand as pivotal players in the evolving Information Technology Services sector.
Gartner, Inc.: The Premier Research and Advisory Powerhouse
Gartner dominates as a global research and advisory company offering critical market insights across multiple continents. Its revenue primarily stems from subscription-based research services, conferences, and consulting engagements. In 2026, Gartner sharpens its strategic focus on delivering actionable IT solutions and digital transformation expertise to enterprise clients worldwide.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.: AI-Driven Decision Support Innovator
BigBear.ai positions itself as a specialist in artificial intelligence and machine learning for decision support systems. It generates revenue through two segments: Cyber & Engineering consulting and advanced Analytics services. The company’s 2026 strategy centers on enhancing real-time data synthesis and predictive analytics to empower enterprise IT and cybersecurity decision-making.
Strategic Collision: Similarities & Divergences
Both firms operate in IT services but diverge sharply in approach—Gartner relies on a subscription-based model emphasizing market research and advisory, while BigBear.ai adopts a project-driven, AI-centric consulting framework. Their primary battleground is enterprise IT optimization, where Gartner’s broad advisory clashes with BigBear.ai’s specialized analytics. These differences create distinct investment profiles: Gartner offers stability with scale, BigBear.ai presents growth potential amid higher volatility.
Income Statement Comparison
This data dissects the core profitability and scalability of both corporate engines to reveal who dominates the bottom line:
| Metric | Gartner, Inc. (IT) | BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.5B | 158M |
| Cost of Revenue | 2.1B | 113M |
| Operating Expenses | 3.4B | 179M |
| Gross Profit | 4.4B | 45M |
| EBITDA | 1.2B | -258M |
| EBIT | 1.0B | -270M |
| Interest Expense | 61M | 26M |
| Net Income | 729M | -296M |
| EPS | 9.68 | -1.27 |
| Fiscal Year | 2025 | 2024 |
Income Statement Analysis: The Bottom-Line Duel
This income statement comparison reveals which company runs a more efficient and profitable corporate engine.
Gartner, Inc. Analysis
Gartner’s revenue climbed steadily from 4.7B in 2021 to 6.5B in 2025, showing strong top-line growth of 37% over five years. However, net income declined 8% overall, with a sharp drop in 2025 to 729M, pulling net margins down to 11.2%. Its gross margin remains robust at 67.7%, but operating income and EPS fell significantly last year, indicating margin pressure and slowing profitability momentum.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. Analysis
BigBear.ai’s revenue expanded 73% from 91M in 2020 to 158M in 2024, but the company remains deeply unprofitable. Its gross margin holds at a modest 28.6%, yet EBIT and net margins are heavily negative at -170.7% and -186.8%, respectively. Net losses widened to -296M in 2024, reflecting ongoing operational inefficiencies and heavy interest expenses, despite some recent improvement in gross profit growth.
Margin Strength vs. Growth Struggles
Gartner delivers scale with solid gross margins but faces declining net income and margin compression, signaling growing cost challenges. BigBear.ai shows impressive revenue growth but suffers from severe losses and negative margins, pointing to operational and capital structure weaknesses. For investors, Gartner’s mature profitability offers a steadier profile, while BigBear.ai’s high growth comes with high risk and persistent losses.
Financial Ratios Comparison
These vital ratios act as a diagnostic tool to expose the underlying fiscal health, valuation premiums, and capital efficiency of the companies compared:
| Ratios | Gartner, Inc. (IT) | BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) |
|---|---|---|
| ROE | 92.24% | 79.58% |
| ROIC | 22.39% | -93.42% |
| P/E | 30.06 | -3.52 |
| P/B | 27.73 | -279.90 |
| Current Ratio | 1.06 | 0.46 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.06 | 0.46 |
| D/E | 2.13 | -39.42 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 33.98% | 42.59% |
| Interest Coverage | 8.82 | -5.20 |
| Asset Turnover | 0.73 | 0.46 |
| Fixed Asset Turnover | 12.53 | 14.61 |
| Payout ratio | 0 | 0 |
| Dividend yield | 0 | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | 2024 | 2024 |
Efficiency & Valuation Duel: The Vital Signs
Financial ratios serve as the company’s DNA, uncovering hidden risks and measuring operational excellence in ways raw figures cannot.
Gartner, Inc.
Gartner shows a solid net margin of 11.22%, signaling efficient profitability despite an unfavorable ROE of 0%, which raises concerns about shareholder returns. The P/E ratio stands neutral at 24.91, indicating fair valuation. Lack of dividends suggests reinvestment into growth or R&D, but liquidity ratios remain weak, signaling potential short-term risks.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
BigBear.ai’s profitability ratios are volatile, with a staggering favorable ROE of 7,958% but a deeply negative net margin of -186.78%. Its negative P/E and P/B ratios indicate valuation challenges amid ongoing losses. The company shows no dividends, focusing heavily on R&D and growth, but suffers from poor liquidity and interest coverage, increasing financial risk.
Valuation Stability vs. Operational Volatility
Gartner offers stable profitability with fair valuation but weak liquidity, reflecting moderate risk. BigBear.ai presents extreme ROE volatility and negative margins, highlighting high operational risk despite aggressive growth focus. Investors seeking steady returns may lean toward Gartner, while those pursuing high-risk profiles fit BigBear.ai’s speculative nature.
Which one offers the Superior Shareholder Reward?
Gartner, Inc. (IT) pays no dividend but maintains a robust free cash flow, supporting sustainable buybacks that enhance shareholder returns. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) neither pays dividends nor executes meaningful buybacks, focusing instead on growth investments amid persistent losses. I see IT’s disciplined capital allocation and strong FCF coverage as more attractive for total returns in 2026.
Comparative Score Analysis: The Strategic Profile
The radar chart reveals the fundamental DNA and trade-offs of Gartner, Inc. and BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc., highlighting their financial strengths and weaknesses:
Gartner, Inc. boasts a strong discounted cash flow (DCF) score of 5, signaling solid future cash flow projections. However, it struggles with returns and leverage, scoring only 1 in ROE, ROA, and debt-to-equity, indicating operational inefficiencies and a weak balance sheet. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. shows a more moderate debt-to-equity score of 3, suggesting better financial stability, but it suffers across most other metrics, including DCF, ROE, and ROA at 1. Overall, Gartner exhibits a pronounced edge in valuation discipline, while BigBear.ai relies more on moderate leverage management but lacks operational efficiency.
Bankruptcy Risk: Solvency Showdown
Gartner’s Altman Z-Score of 3.54 places it firmly in the safe zone, while BigBear.ai’s 1.83 sits in the grey zone, implying elevated risk levels. This gap underscores Gartner’s stronger long-term survival prospects in the current economic cycle:
Financial Health: Quality of Operations
Gartner’s Piotroski F-Score of 5 signals average financial health, outperforming BigBear.ai’s weak score of 3. This suggests Gartner manages internal operations and financial stability better, whereas BigBear.ai raises red flags with weaker profitability and efficiency metrics:
How are the two companies positioned?
This section dissects the operational DNA of Gartner and BigBear.ai by comparing their revenue distribution by segment and internal dynamics. The final objective is to confront their economic moats to identify which business model offers the most resilient, sustainable competitive advantage today.
Revenue Segmentation: The Strategic Mix
This visual comparison dissects how Gartner, Inc. and BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. diversify their income streams and reveals where their primary sector bets lie:
Gartner anchors its revenue in the Research Segment with $5.13B in 2024, dwarfing Consulting ($559M) and Events ($583M). This signals a strong ecosystem lock-in through proprietary insights. BigBear.ai, however, reports a single $158M segment in 2024, showing concentration risk and less diversification. Gartner’s multi-segment mix offers resilience, while BigBear.ai’s narrow focus demands cautious risk management.
Strengths and Weaknesses Comparison
This table compares the strengths and weaknesses of Gartner, Inc. and BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. based on diversification, profitability, financials, innovation, global presence, and market share:
Gartner, Inc. Strengths
- Diverse revenue streams across Consulting, Events, and Research segments
- Strong net margin at 11.22%
- Favorable debt-to-equity and debt-to-assets ratios
- High interest coverage ratio at 16.98
- Established global presence with significant revenue from US, EMEA, and other regions
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. Strengths
- Favorable ROE at 7957.65% indicating strong equity returns
- Positive P/E and price-to-book ratios despite losses
- High fixed asset turnover at 14.61 suggesting asset efficiency
- Favorable debt-to-equity ratio indicating low leverage
Gartner, Inc. Weaknesses
- Unfavorable ROE and ROIC at 0% pointing to weak capital returns
- Zero current and quick ratios indicating liquidity risks
- Unavailable WACC data limiting cost of capital analysis
- Unfavorable asset and fixed asset turnover ratios
- No dividend yield to attract income investors
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. Weaknesses
- Negative net margin at -186.78% signaling unprofitability
- Unfavorable ROIC and WACC at 18.34% exceeding returns
- Low current and quick ratios at 0.46 showing liquidity strain
- Negative interest coverage at -10.53 risking solvency
- Unfavorable asset turnover at 0.46 and zero dividend yield
Gartner exhibits a well-diversified revenue base and solid leverage metrics but faces challenges in capital efficiency and liquidity. BigBear.ai shows strong equity returns and asset turnover yet struggles significantly with profitability and liquidity, which may impact its operational stability.
The Moat Duel: Analyzing Competitive Defensibility
A structural moat is the only protection for long-term profits against competition’s relentless erosion of market share and pricing power:
Gartner, Inc.: Intangible Assets Powerhouse
Gartner’s moat stems from its deep intangible assets in proprietary research and expert networks. This drives stable margins and a solid 67.7% gross margin. However, its shrinking EBIT and net margins in 2025 signal margin pressure amid digital disruption.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.: Emerging Tech with Fragile Moat
BigBear.ai leans on cutting-edge AI and analytics, a tech-driven moat distinct from Gartner’s research base. Yet its steep losses and negative ROIC trend highlight weak capital efficiency. Growth potential remains, but profitability hurdles loom large.
Intangible Assets vs. AI Innovation: Stability or High-Risk Growth?
Gartner holds the deeper, more proven moat through decades of trusted intellectual property and client relationships. BigBear.ai’s moat is narrower and unproven with rapidly declining returns. Gartner is better equipped to defend market share in 2026.
Which stock offers better returns?
The past year reveals stark contrasts: Gartner, Inc. (IT) dropped sharply, while BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) surged before a recent dip, illustrating divergent trading dynamics.
Trend Comparison
Gartner’s stock fell 66.81% over the past 12 months, marking a bearish trend with decelerating losses and high volatility. The price ranged between 547.4 and 156.33, showing weakening momentum.
BigBear.ai’s stock rose 93.44% in the same period, indicating a bullish trend with decelerating gains and very low volatility. The price fluctuated from 1.21 to 9.02, reflecting steady growth.
BBAI outperformed IT by a wide margin, delivering the highest market returns despite recent declines for both stocks.
Target Prices
Analyst consensus reveals moderate upside potential for both Gartner, Inc. and BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
| Company | Target Low | Target High | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gartner, Inc. | 170 | 275 | 206.3 |
| BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Gartner’s target consensus of 206.3 suggests a 32% upside from the current 156.33 price, reflecting confidence in its strong information services moat. BigBear.ai’s flat consensus at 6 indicates limited near-term price appreciation from 4.72, signaling cautious optimism.
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How do institutions grade them?
Gartner, Inc. Grades
The following table summarizes recent analyst grades for Gartner, Inc.:
| Grading Company | Action | New Grade | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | maintain | Equal Weight | 2026-02-05 |
| Wells Fargo | maintain | Underweight | 2026-02-04 |
| Morgan Stanley | maintain | Equal Weight | 2026-02-04 |
| UBS | maintain | Neutral | 2026-01-09 |
| Morgan Stanley | maintain | Equal Weight | 2025-12-17 |
| BMO Capital | maintain | Market Perform | 2025-11-06 |
| Barclays | maintain | Equal Weight | 2025-11-05 |
| Wells Fargo | maintain | Underweight | 2025-11-05 |
| Goldman Sachs | maintain | Buy | 2025-11-05 |
| UBS | maintain | Neutral | 2025-11-05 |
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. Grades
The following table summarizes recent analyst grades for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.:
| Grading Company | Action | New Grade | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cantor Fitzgerald | downgrade | Neutral | 2026-01-07 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | maintain | Buy | 2025-11-11 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | maintain | Buy | 2025-08-12 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | maintain | Buy | 2025-07-01 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | maintain | Buy | 2025-03-07 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | maintain | Overweight | 2025-03-07 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | maintain | Buy | 2024-12-30 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | maintain | Buy | 2024-11-06 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | maintain | Buy | 2024-10-15 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | maintain | Overweight | 2024-08-21 |
Which company has the best grades?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. holds generally more positive grades, including multiple “Buy” and “Overweight” ratings. Gartner, Inc. mostly receives conservative “Equal Weight” or “Neutral” grades with some “Underweight” calls. Investors may interpret BigBear.ai’s stronger grades as reflecting higher growth expectations or optimism, while Gartner’s steady but cautious grades suggest a more defensive stance.
Risks specific to each company
The following categories identify the critical pressure points and systemic threats facing Gartner, Inc. and BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. in the 2026 market environment:
1. Market & Competition
Gartner, Inc.
- Well-established with broad global reach in IT services; faces intense pressure from diversified competitors.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
- Smaller scale, specialized AI niche; faces rapid innovation risk and aggressive entrants in AI and analytics.
2. Capital Structure & Debt
Gartner, Inc.
- Strong interest coverage (16.98); low debt-to-assets ratio; financially stable capital structure.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
- Moderate debt-to-assets (42.6%); negative interest coverage (-10.53) signals financial strain and refinancing risk.
3. Stock Volatility
Gartner, Inc.
- Beta near market average (1.04); moderate volatility consistent with sector norms.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
- High beta (3.21) indicates large price swings; elevated risk for risk-averse investors.
4. Regulatory & Legal
Gartner, Inc.
- Operates globally; subject to data privacy and consulting regulations; generally compliant.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
- AI and cybersecurity focus face evolving regulatory scrutiny; compliance costs could rise sharply.
5. Supply Chain & Operations
Gartner, Inc.
- Relies on subscription and consulting delivery; operational risks tied to talent retention and digital infrastructure.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
- Technology-intensive; supply chain for software and hardware integration is complex and vulnerable to disruptions.
6. ESG & Climate Transition
Gartner, Inc.
- Established ESG policies expected from large tech firm; ongoing pressure to improve sustainability reporting.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
- Early-stage ESG frameworks; greater exposure to reputational risks amid growing AI ethical concerns.
7. Geopolitical Exposure
Gartner, Inc.
- Global footprint exposes it to trade tensions and regional economic slowdowns.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
- US-centric but dependent on government contracts; geopolitical shifts in defense and cybersecurity budgets pose risk.
Which company shows a better risk-adjusted profile?
Gartner’s strongest risk is market competition amid digital transformation shifts; BigBear.ai faces critical financial distress risks due to weak capital structure and high volatility. Gartner’s Altman Z-score (3.54) places it safely above distress, unlike BigBear.ai’s borderline 1.83. Thus, Gartner presents a superior risk-adjusted profile, supported by robust interest coverage and stable operations.
Final Verdict: Which stock to choose?
Gartner, Inc. (IT) stands out as a cash-generating powerhouse with strong operational margins and a solid interest coverage ratio. Its main point of vigilance is a declining return on invested capital, signaling pressure on long-term value creation. IT fits well in portfolios targeting steady income with moderate growth.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) offers a strategic moat rooted in innovative AI solutions and rapid revenue expansion. It carries a higher risk profile, reflected in negative free cash flow and low liquidity ratios, but its growth potential appeals to investors who tolerate volatility. BBAI suits portfolios focused on speculative growth with a long-term horizon.
If you prioritize resilient cash flow and moderate risk, Gartner outshines as the compelling choice due to its operational discipline and financial stability. However, if you seek aggressive growth with exposure to cutting-edge technology, BigBear.ai offers superior upside potential despite its financial headwinds. Each presents a distinct risk-reward profile aligned with different investor appetites.
Disclaimer: Investment carries a risk of loss of initial capital. The past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Be sure to understand risks before making an investment decision.
Go Further
I encourage you to read the complete analyses of Gartner, Inc. and BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. to enhance your investment decisions:
