Imagine a world where decisions are made with unprecedented speed and accuracy, transforming industries and enhancing daily life. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. stands at the forefront of this revolution, harnessing the power of artificial intelligence and machine learning to redefine how organizations approach decision-making. With its cutting-edge solutions in cybersecurity, engineering, and analytics, the company has built a reputation for innovation and quality in the Information Technology Services sector. As we delve into this analysis, the critical question looms: do BigBear.ai’s fundamentals justify its current market valuation and growth trajectory?
Table of contents
Company Description
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is a prominent player in the Information Technology Services sector, specializing in artificial intelligence and machine learning for critical decision support. Founded in 2021 and headquartered in Columbia, Maryland, the company operates primarily in the U.S. through two key segments: Cyber & Engineering and Analytics. These divisions provide a comprehensive range of services, including cloud engineering, cybersecurity, and advanced data analytics solutions. With a market cap of approximately $2.53B and a workforce of around 630 employees, BigBear.ai positions itself as a leader in leveraging technology to empower real-time decision-making for its clients. This strategic focus on innovation and analytics solidifies its role in transforming how organizations harness data-driven insights.
Fundamental Analysis
In this section, I will analyze BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. by examining its income statement, key financial ratios, and dividend payout policy.
Income Statement
The following table summarizes the income statement for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) over the last five fiscal years, highlighting key financial metrics.
| Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 91.3M | 145.6M | 155.0M | 155.2M | 158.2M |
| Cost of Revenue | 69.6M | 111.5M | 112.0M | 114.6M | 113.0M |
| Operating Expenses | 26.2M | 112.5M | 153.5M | 79.6M | 178.6M |
| Gross Profit | 21.7M | 34.1M | 42.9M | 40.6M | 45.2M |
| EBITDA | 6.6M | -107.4M | -48.2M | -22.3M | -258.3M |
| EBIT | 5.5M | -114.7M | -55.9M | -30.2M | -270.2M |
| Interest Expense | N/A | 7.8M | 14.4M | 14.2M | 25.6M |
| Net Income | -7.8M | -123.6M | -111.4M | -70.7M | -295.5M |
| EPS | -0.0003 | -1.15 | -0.95 | -0.40 | -1.27 |
| Filing Date | 2021-03-31 | 2022-03-31 | 2023-03-31 | 2024-03-15 | 2025-03-25 |
Interpretation of Income Statement
Over the past five years, BigBear.ai has shown a modest increase in revenue from 91.3M in 2020 to 158.2M in 2024. However, net income has deteriorated significantly, reflecting losses growing from -7.8M to -295.5M during the same period. Gross profit margin has slightly improved, though operating expenses surged notably in 2024, resulting in a considerable EBITDA loss. The recent year indicates a troubling trend, as the company faces escalating costs and a substantial increase in interest expenses, which may raise concerns about its profitability and financial sustainability moving forward.
Financial Ratios
Below is a summary of the financial ratios for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) over the available fiscal years.
| Ratios | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margin | -0.037% | -0.849% | -0.785% | -0.389% | -1.625% |
| ROE | -0.034% | -1.009% | 3.213% | 0.896% | 69.223% |
| ROIC | -1.083% | -0.249% | -0.305% | -0.293% | -0.320% |
| P/E | -30271.88 | -4.902 | -0.707 | -5.290 | -4.043 |
| P/B | 10.281 | 4.950 | -2.272 | -4.743 | -279.898 |
| Current Ratio | 2.849 | 2.945 | 1.519 | 0.929 | 0.462 |
| Quick Ratio | 2.849 | 1.502 | 1.519 | 0.929 | 0.462 |
| D/E | 1.066 | 1.590 | -5.288 | -2.979 | -39.421 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 48.998% | 50.766% | 102.543% | 100.342% | 42.589% |
| Interest Coverage | 0.000 | -10.110 | -3.476 | -2.749 | -1.781 |
| Asset Turnover | 0.418 | 0.380 | 0.794 | 0.776 | 0.460 |
| Fixed Asset Turnover | 105.813 | 135.045 | 25.533 | 30.799 | 14.612 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0095 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Interpretation of Financial Ratios
Analyzing BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) financial ratios from 2024 reveals significant concerns. The liquidity ratios, including a current ratio of 0.462 and a quick ratio of 0.462, indicate potential liquidity issues, as values below 1 suggest the company may struggle to meet short-term obligations. The solvency ratio of -0.706 further exacerbates this concern, indicating high debt relative to assets. Profitability remains weak with a net profit margin of -1.625, suggesting inefficiencies in converting revenue into profit. Additionally, the company has a high price-to-sales ratio of 6.57, which may indicate overvaluation given its current performance.
Evolution of Financial Ratios
Over the past five years, BBAI has shown a troubling decline in financial performance. The current ratio has decreased from 2.944 in 2021 to 0.462 in 2024, reflecting worsening liquidity. Profitability ratios have also deteriorated, with net profit margins shifting from negative to increasingly negative figures, highlighting ongoing operational challenges.
Distribution Policy
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) does not currently pay dividends, reflecting its focus on reinvestment and growth during a challenging financial phase, characterized by negative net income. The absence of dividend payments allows the company to allocate resources toward R&D and potential acquisitions. However, BBAI has engaged in share buyback programs, which can enhance shareholder value if executed prudently. Overall, while the lack of dividends aligns with a growth strategy, it poses risks if financial performance does not improve, potentially impacting long-term shareholder value.
Sector Analysis
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. operates in the Information Technology Services sector, focusing on artificial intelligence and machine learning for decision support, competing with other tech firms in analytics and cybersecurity.
Strategic Positioning
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) operates in the competitive landscape of Information Technology Services, focusing on artificial intelligence and machine learning for decision support. With a market cap of approximately 2.53B and a current share price of 6.82, the company faces significant competitive pressure from both established players and emerging tech startups. Its dual segments—Cyber & Engineering and Analytics—allow it to leverage its expertise in cloud engineering and big data analytics. However, ongoing technological disruptions in AI could reshape market dynamics, necessitating agile strategies to maintain and enhance market share.
Revenue by Segment
The chart illustrates the revenue generated by BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. across its reportable segments for the fiscal years leading up to 2024.
In the recent fiscal year of 2024, BigBear.ai reported revenue of 158.2M from its reportable segment. This marks a notable increase compared to previous years, particularly as the Analytics segment contributed 83.9M in 2022, reflecting steady growth from 70.7M in 2021. The Cyber and Engineering segment, although not reported in 2024, showed 74.9M in 2021, indicating a potential area of concern for diversification and revenue concentration. Overall, while growth is evident, the reliance on a single reportable segment poses a margin risk that investors should closely monitor.
Key Products
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. specializes in artificial intelligence and machine learning solutions, offering a range of products that support decision-making across various industries. Below is a table summarizing the key products provided by the company.
| Product | Description |
|---|---|
| Cyber & Engineering Services | Provides high-end technology and management consulting in areas such as cybersecurity and cloud engineering. |
| Predictive Analytics Solutions | Offers advanced analytical tools that help organizations predict future trends based on historical data. |
| Prescriptive Analytics Tools | Delivers solutions that suggest actions to optimize outcomes based on data analysis. |
| Big Data Computing Solutions | Enables clients to process and analyze large volumes of data efficiently for real-time decision-making. |
| Strategy and Program Planning | Assists in developing comprehensive strategies for project management and operational efficiency. |
These products are designed to enhance operational efficiency and decision-making capabilities for businesses, making BigBear.ai a key player in the information technology services sector.
Main Competitors
The competitive landscape for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) in the Information Technology Services sector includes several key players with notable market capitalizations. Below is a summary of the main competitors, sorted by their market cap:
| Company | Market Cap |
|---|---|
| Ondas Holdings Inc. | 3.34B |
| Globant S.A. | 3.14B |
| Formula Systems (1985) Ltd. | 2.55B |
| BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) | 2.53B |
| DXC Technology Company | 2.54B |
| VNET Group, Inc. | 2.40B |
| Clarivate Plc | 2.39B |
| Concentrix Corporation | 2.39B |
| C3.ai, Inc. | 2.03B |
| ASGN Incorporated | 1.99B |
| Innodata Inc. | 1.84B |
In summary, the main competitors in the U.S. market are a mix of technology and analytics-focused companies, with Ondas Holdings Inc. and Globant S.A. leading the pack in market capitalization. This competitive environment highlights the robust demand for AI and analytics solutions in various sectors.
Competitive Advantages
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. possesses notable competitive advantages in the rapidly evolving field of artificial intelligence and machine learning. The company’s dual focus on Cyber & Engineering and Analytics allows it to provide comprehensive solutions, enhancing its appeal across various sectors. Looking ahead, BigBear.ai is poised to expand its product offerings and penetrate new markets, particularly in predictive analytics and cybersecurity. This strategic positioning not only strengthens its current operations but also opens up future opportunities for growth and innovation, making it a compelling option for investors.
SWOT Analysis
The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. through its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to inform investment decisions.
Strengths
- Established AI technology
- Diverse service segments
- Strong market cap of 2.53B
Weaknesses
- High beta of 3.197
- No recent dividends
- Limited brand recognition
Opportunities
- Growing demand for AI solutions
- Expansion in cybersecurity
- Strategic partnerships potential
Threats
- Intense competition in tech
- Market volatility risks
- Regulatory changes impact
Overall, BigBear.ai displays strong potential with its innovative AI solutions and market presence. However, investors should remain cautious of its volatility and competition, ensuring a balanced approach to risk management in their strategy.
Stock Analysis
Over the past year, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) has experienced significant price movements and trading dynamics that reflect a bullish sentiment overall, despite recent fluctuations.
Trend Analysis
Analyzing the stock’s performance over the past two years, I note a remarkable percentage change of +241%. This substantial increase indicates a bullish trend. However, in the recent period from September 21, 2025, to December 7, 2025, there has been a minor decline of -0.44%, suggesting a neutral trend during this timeframe. The overall trend shows a deceleration in acceleration, with notable highs reaching $9.02 and lows at $1.21. The standard deviation of 2.15 suggests some volatility in the stock price.
Volume Analysis
In the last three months, the total trading volume has reached approximately 25.30B shares, with buyer volume contributing 14.10B shares (55.73%) against seller volume of 11.18B shares. The volume trend is increasing, indicating a growing interest among investors. This suggests a slightly buyer-dominant sentiment, as evidenced by the recent period’s buyer volume of approximately 4.09B shares compared to seller volume of around 3.37B shares. Overall, the market participation reflects a cautious optimism among investors.
Analyst Opinions
Recent analyst recommendations for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) indicate a cautious outlook. Analysts have assigned a rating of “C-” based on various performance metrics, particularly highlighting concerns around return on equity and return on assets. The overall score is low at 1, suggesting potential weaknesses in financial health and valuation. Given these factors, the consensus leans towards a “sell” for the current year, reflecting caution among investors regarding the company’s future prospects.
Stock Grades
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) has received consistent positive stock ratings from recognized grading companies, indicating a stable outlook for investors.
| Grading Company | Action | New Grade | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintain | Buy | 2025-11-11 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintain | Buy | 2025-08-12 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintain | Buy | 2025-07-01 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintain | Overweight | 2025-03-07 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintain | Buy | 2025-03-07 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintain | Buy | 2024-12-30 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintain | Buy | 2024-11-06 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintain | Buy | 2024-10-15 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintain | Overweight | 2024-08-21 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintain | Buy | 2024-08-02 |
The trend shows that BBAI has consistently maintained a “Buy” rating from HC Wainwright & Co., with Cantor Fitzgerald also supporting an “Overweight” stance. This consistent positive sentiment suggests that analysts believe in the company’s growth potential, making it a candidate for your investment portfolio.
Target Prices
The consensus target price for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) indicates a strong alignment among analysts.
| Target High | Target Low | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | 7 |
Overall, analysts expect the stock to reach a target price of $7, reflecting a uniform outlook on its performance.
Consumer Opinions
Consumer sentiment surrounding BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) reveals a mix of enthusiasm and concern, reflecting the company’s innovative approach and the challenges it faces in the market.
| Positive Reviews | Negative Reviews |
|---|---|
| “BigBear.ai’s analytics tools have transformed our decision-making process.” | “Customer service responses are often delayed.” |
| “Impressive AI capabilities that drive efficiency.” | “The software is complex and requires extensive training.” |
| “Great potential for growth in the AI sector.” | “Price point feels high compared to competitors.” |
Overall, consumer feedback indicates a strong appreciation for BigBear.ai’s innovative technology and growth potential, while concerns about customer service and usability persist.
Risk Analysis
In assessing the potential risks associated with investing in BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI), I present the following table to highlight key risk factors.
| Category | Description | Probability | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Volatility | Fluctuations in the tech sector could affect stock prices. | High | High |
| Regulatory Changes | Changes in AI regulations may impact operations and profitability. | Medium | High |
| Competition | Increasing competition in AI could lead to market share loss. | High | Medium |
| Technological Risks | Potential failure in technology implementation could hinder growth. | Medium | High |
| Economic Conditions | A downturn in the economy may reduce client budgets for AI solutions. | Medium | Medium |
In summary, the most likely and impactful risks for BBAI stem from market volatility and regulatory changes, which could significantly affect both stock performance and operational capabilities.
Should You Buy BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) is currently exhibiting significant financial challenges, reflected in its net income of -295.55M for FY 2024, indicating value destruction as the return on invested capital (ROIC) of -0.32 is less than the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 18.41. The company carries a total debt of 146.41M, which contributes to a precarious financial position, evidenced by a current ratio of 0.46 and a debt-to-equity ratio of -39.42. Despite a C- rating, caution is advisable given the ongoing fundamental evolution and the potential for further losses.
Favorable signals
I have identified a few favorable elements in the data for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. The company has a positive gross margin of 28.58%, indicating effective cost management relative to revenue. Additionally, there is a gross profit growth of 11.38%, suggesting improved profitability in that area. The return on equity (ROE) stands at an impressive 6922.29%, which reflects high efficiency in generating profits from shareholder equity. The price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios are both negative, which could indicate potential undervaluation. Lastly, the debt-to-equity ratio is -39.42, suggesting a strong position in terms of equity financing.
Unfavorable signals
Conversely, the company faces several unfavorable signals. The revenue growth is only 1.98%, which is weak and may suggest challenges in expanding its market presence. The EBIT margin is significantly negative at -170.73%, indicating substantial operational inefficiencies. Furthermore, the net margin is also negative at -186.78%, along with a net margin growth rate of -310.16%. The interest expense percentage is high at 16.21%, which could strain profitability. Additionally, the current and quick ratios are both low at 0.46, pointing to liquidity concerns. Lastly, the interest coverage ratio is negative at -10.53, indicating difficulties in covering interest obligations.
Conclusion
Considering the unfavorable global income statement opinion and the overall unfavorable ratios evaluation, it might be prudent to wait for clearer signs of recovery before considering an investment in BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. The recent seller volume exceeding buyer volume suggests a need for buyers to return to the market for a more favorable outlook.
Disclaimer: This article is not financial advice. Each investor is responsible for their own investment decisions.
Additional Resources
- BigBear.ai Stock (BBAI) Is Trending After-Hours: Here’s Why – Benzinga (Dec 05, 2025)
- Swiss National Bank Purchases 186,600 Shares of BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. $BBAI – MarketBeat (Dec 04, 2025)
- Is BigBear.ai (BBAI) Using New Share Authorization To Accelerate Growth Or Dilute Investor Influence? – Yahoo Finance (Dec 05, 2025)
- BigBear.ai Stock Rises 36% in 6 Months: Is It Still a Buy? – Zacks Investment Research (Dec 03, 2025)
- BigBear AI (BBAI) Surges 15% After Kicking Off December on a Double-Digit Drop – Yahoo Finance (Dec 05, 2025)
For more information about BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc., please visit the official website: bigbear.ai
