In a world increasingly driven by data, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is redefining how organizations leverage artificial intelligence to make informed decisions. With its innovative solutions in cybersecurity and advanced analytics, the company stands at the forefront of the Information Technology Services industry. Recognized for its commitment to quality and excellence, BigBear.ai empowers clients to navigate complex data landscapes efficiently. As we delve into this analysis, we must ponder whether the company’s robust fundamentals still warrant its current market valuation and future growth potential.
Table of contents
Company Description
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BBAI), founded in 2021 and headquartered in Columbia, Maryland, operates at the intersection of artificial intelligence and machine learning, specializing in decision support services. The company is structured into two primary segments: Cyber & Engineering and Analytics. It offers advanced technology and management consulting, focusing on cloud engineering, cybersecurity, and big data analytics. With a market capitalization of approximately $2.12B, BigBear.ai targets clients across various sectors, enhancing real-time decision-making capabilities through innovative solutions. As a challenger in the Information Technology Services industry, the company is poised to shape the future of data-driven decision-making, emphasizing sustainability and technological advancement.
Fundamental Analysis
In this section, I will analyze BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.’s income statement, financial ratios, and dividend payout policy to assess its investment potential.
Income Statement
The following table summarizes BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.’s income statement for the fiscal years 2020 to 2024, providing insight into revenue, expenses, and net income trends.
| Income Statement Metrics | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 91.3M | 145.6M | 155.0M | 155.2M | 158.2M |
| Cost of Revenue | 69.6M | 111.5M | 112.0M | 114.6M | 113.0M |
| Operating Expenses | 26.2M | 112.5M | 153.5M | 79.6M | 178.6M |
| Gross Profit | 21.7M | 34.1M | 42.9M | 40.6M | 45.2M |
| EBITDA | 6.6M | -107.4M | -48.2M | -22.3M | -258.3M |
| EBIT | 5.5M | -114.7M | -55.9M | -30.2M | -270.2M |
| Interest Expense | N/A | 7.8M | 14.4M | 14.2M | 25.6M |
| Net Income | -7.8M | -123.6M | -111.4M | -70.7M | -295.5M |
| EPS | -0.0003 | -1.15 | -0.95 | -0.4 | -1.27 |
| Filing Date | 2021-03-31 | 2022-03-31 | 2023-03-31 | 2024-03-15 | 2025-03-25 |
Analyzing the data, I observe that BigBear.ai’s revenue has shown a slight upward trend, increasing from 91.3M in 2020 to 158.2M in 2024. However, net income has deteriorated significantly, moving from a loss of 7.8M to an alarming loss of 295.5M over the same period. This reflects a concerning increase in operating expenses, which surged in 2024. The decline in EBITDA and EBIT indicates operational challenges that need addressing. The substantial jump in interest expenses also signals heightened financial risk, making it crucial for investors to approach this stock with caution.
Financial Ratios
The following table summarizes the key financial ratios for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) over the most recent years:
| Ratio | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margin | -0.0004 | -0.8487 | -0.7849 | -0.3890 | -1.6248 |
| ROE | -0.0003 | -1.0097 | 3.2128 | 0.8965 | 69.2229 |
| ROIC | -0.0108 | -0.2493 | -0.3046 | -0.2933 | -0.3202 |
| WACC | – | – | – | – | – |
| P/E | -30271.88 | -4.9022 | -0.7071 | -5.2904 | -4.0434 |
| P/B | 10.28 | 4.95 | -2.27 | -4.74 | -279.90 |
| Current Ratio | 2.85 | 2.94 | 1.52 | 0.93 | 0.46 |
| Quick Ratio | 2.85 | 1.50 | 1.52 | 0.93 | 0.46 |
| D/E | 1.07 | 1.59 | -5.29 | -2.98 | -39.42 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.49 | 0.51 | 1.03 | 1.00 | 0.43 |
| Interest Coverage | 0 | -10.11 | -3.48 | -2.75 | -1.78 |
| Asset Turnover | 0.42 | 0.38 | 0.79 | 0.78 | 0.46 |
| Fixed Asset Turnover | 105.81 | 135.04 | 25.53 | 30.80 | 14.61 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0095 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Interpretation of Financial Ratios
In the most recent year (2024), BBAI shows concerning financial health. The net margin is deeply negative, indicating significant losses, while a very high ROE suggests a misleading figure due to negative equity. The current ratio below 1 highlights liquidity issues, and the P/B ratio indicates the company is trading well below its book value. Overall, these ratios suggest potential red flags for investors.
Evolution of Financial Ratios
Over the past five years, BBAI has experienced a significant decline in financial performance, particularly in profitability and liquidity ratios. The increasing negative trends in net margin and ROE indicate deteriorating financial health, while liquidity ratios have also fallen sharply, reflecting increased financial strain.
Distribution Policy
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) does not pay dividends, aligning with a high-growth strategy focused on reinvesting earnings into research and development and acquisitions. The company’s negative net income and ongoing capital needs suggest that cash is being redirected to fuel growth rather than returning value to shareholders. However, BBAI does engage in share buybacks, which can support shareholder value over time. This approach may foster long-term value creation if executed prudently amidst a challenging financial landscape.
Sector Analysis
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. operates in the Information Technology Services sector, specializing in AI-driven decision support solutions. Key competitors include established tech firms, with BigBear.ai leveraging its strengths in cybersecurity and analytics for competitive advantage.
Strategic Positioning
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) operates within the competitive landscape of Information Technology Services, focusing on artificial intelligence and machine learning for decision support. Currently valued at approximately $2.12B, the company maintains a market share in high-demand areas such as cybersecurity and analytics. However, it faces significant competitive pressure from established players and emerging startups leveraging technological advancements. The ongoing technological disruption in AI solutions necessitates continuous innovation and adaptation to remain relevant in a fast-evolving market. Given its beta of 3.186, investors should be cautious about potential volatility.
Revenue by Segment
The following chart illustrates the revenue distribution by segment for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. during the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024.
In FY 2024, BigBear.ai generated a total revenue of 158.2M from its reportable segment. This figure indicates a consistent focus on its primary offerings, although relative segment performance isn’t available for deeper comparison with previous years. Notably, the analytics segment has shown growth from 70.7M in 2021 to 83.9M in 2022, highlighting a trend towards increased demand for analytics solutions. However, without more recent comparative data, it’s challenging to assess the ongoing momentum or any potential risks related to revenue concentration in a single segment.
Key Products
Below is a table outlining the key products offered by BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc., which highlight their focus on artificial intelligence and machine learning solutions.
| Product | Description |
|---|---|
| Cybersecurity Solutions | Advanced cybersecurity services that protect against cyber threats, ensuring data integrity and security for clients. |
| Cloud Engineering | Comprehensive cloud engineering services that facilitate the migration and management of enterprise IT systems in the cloud. |
| Predictive Analytics | Tools that utilize big data to predict future outcomes, helping organizations make informed decisions based on data trends. |
| Prescriptive Analytics | Solutions that provide actionable insights by recommending specific actions based on predictive models and data analysis. |
| Enterprise IT Consulting | Management consulting services that assist organizations in optimizing their IT infrastructure and strategy to enhance operational efficiency. |
Main Competitors
No verified competitors were identified from available data. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) operates in the Information Technology Services sector, focusing on artificial intelligence and machine learning for decision support. With a market cap of approximately $2.12B, the company holds a competitive position in its niche, particularly in the areas of cybersecurity and data analytics.
Competitive Advantages
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) leverages its expertise in artificial intelligence and machine learning to provide robust decision support solutions, establishing a significant competitive edge in the technology services sector. With two main segments—Cyber & Engineering and Analytics—the company caters to diverse needs in cybersecurity, cloud engineering, and big data analytics. Looking ahead, BBAI has the potential to expand its product offerings and enter new markets, driven by increasing demand for advanced data-driven solutions. This positions the company well for future growth opportunities, particularly in sectors prioritizing real-time decision-making capabilities.
SWOT Analysis
This analysis aims to provide a concise overview of BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.’s strategic position through its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.
Strengths
- Strong market presence
- Advanced AI capabilities
- Diverse service offerings
Weaknesses
- High beta risk
- No dividend payments
- Dependence on government contracts
Opportunities
- Growing demand for AI solutions
- Expansion into new markets
- Strategic partnerships
Threats
- Intense competition
- Regulatory challenges
- Economic downturns
The overall SWOT assessment indicates that BigBear.ai has a solid foundation with significant growth potential, but it must navigate considerable risks. Strategic focus on expanding opportunities while managing weaknesses will be crucial for long-term success.
Stock Analysis
In the past year, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) has exhibited significant price movements, culminating in a notable bullish trend characterized by a 167.06% increase. This analysis provides insight into trading dynamics and stock performance.
Trend Analysis
Analyzing the stock’s performance over the past year, BBAI has experienced a remarkable price change of 167.06%. This percentage change clearly indicates a bullish trend for the stock. However, it is important to note that the acceleration status shows deceleration, suggesting that while the stock has risen significantly, the pace of that increase is slowing. Throughout this period, BBAI reached a high of 9.02 and a low of 1.21, with a standard deviation of 2.12 indicating a moderate level of volatility.
Volume Analysis
Over the last three months, the trading volume for BBAI has been approximately 24.12B. This volume reflects a buyer-driven market, with buyer volume at 13.26B compared to seller volume at 10.83B, yielding a buyer percentage of 54.97%. The volume trend is increasing, which suggests growing investor sentiment and participation in the stock. In the recent period, buyer volume was 3.55B against seller volume of 3.16B, indicating a slight buyer dominance at 52.86%, and a neutral buyer behavior. This trend indicates ongoing interest in the stock, supporting its bullish trajectory.
Analyst Opinions
Recent ratings for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) reveal a cautious stance among analysts. The overall consensus reflects a “C-” rating, primarily driven by concerns regarding low scores in discounted cash flow and return on equity. Analysts emphasize the company’s significant debt-to-equity ratio, which raises risk flags. Given these factors, the prevailing sentiment leans towards a “sell” recommendation for 2025. Investors should carefully consider these insights before making investment decisions in BBAI.
Stock Grades
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) has received consistent ratings from reputable grading companies, reflecting a stable outlook in the market. Below is a summary of the most recent stock grades.
| Grading Company | Action | New Grade | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintain | Buy | 2025-11-11 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintain | Buy | 2025-08-12 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintain | Buy | 2025-07-01 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintain | Overweight | 2025-03-07 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintain | Buy | 2025-03-07 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintain | Buy | 2024-12-30 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintain | Buy | 2024-11-06 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintain | Buy | 2024-10-15 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Maintain | Overweight | 2024-08-21 |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | Maintain | Buy | 2024-08-02 |
Overall, the trend in grades for BBAI indicates a strong and consistent support from analysts, with multiple maintain ratings of “Buy” from HC Wainwright & Co. and an “Overweight” rating from Cantor Fitzgerald, suggesting a positive outlook for the company’s performance.
Target Prices
The consensus target price for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) reflects a strong agreement among analysts.
| Target High | Target Low | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | 7 |
Analysts anticipate a stable outlook for BBAI, with a unified target price indicating confidence in its performance.
Consumer Opinions
Consumer sentiment regarding BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) reveals a mix of satisfaction and concerns, painting a nuanced picture of the company’s reputation.
| Positive Reviews | Negative Reviews |
|---|---|
| “Innovative solutions that drive efficiency.” | “Customer support could use improvement.” |
| “Impressive AI capabilities that enhance decision-making.” | “Pricing structure is not transparent.” |
| “Strong leadership and vision for the future.” | “Occasional technical glitches hinder performance.” |
Overall, consumer feedback highlights BigBear.ai’s innovative technology and strong leadership as key strengths, while concerns about customer support and pricing transparency are recurring weaknesses.
Risk Analysis
In this section, I will outline the key risks associated with investing in BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) to provide a clearer understanding for potential investors.
| Category | Description | Probability | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Risk | Fluctuations in AI industry demand can affect revenue. | High | High |
| Regulatory Risk | Changes in regulations regarding AI technologies may impact operations. | Medium | High |
| Operational Risk | Challenges in scaling technology and talent acquisition may hinder growth. | High | Medium |
| Financial Risk | Potential for cash flow issues due to high R&D costs. | Medium | High |
| Competitive Risk | Intense competition in the AI sector may reduce market share. | High | Medium |
The most significant risks for BBAI include market fluctuations and regulatory changes, both of which can dramatically influence the company’s performance and investors’ returns.
Should You Buy BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is currently facing challenges with a negative net margin of -1.6247, indicating unprofitable operations. The company has a total debt of 146.41M against total equity of 1.34B, suggesting a high level of leverage relative to its equity base. The fundamentals have shown a long-term trend of decline, and the company holds a rating of C-.
A. Favorable signals There are no favorable signals present in the current data.
B. Unfavorable signals The company has a negative net margin of -1.6247, which indicates unprofitability. The return on invested capital (ROIC) is -0.3202, which is less than the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) at 18.29, signifying value destruction. Additionally, the long-term trend of the company remains negative, and recent seller volume of 3.16B exceeds recent buyer volume of 3.55B, indicating that sellers are currently dominant in the market.
C. Conclusion Given the negative net margin, the long-term trend is negative, and recent selling pressure outweighs buying interest, it might be more prudent to wait for a more favorable market condition before considering any investment in BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
Furthermore, the high beta of 3.186 indicates significant volatility, which adds an additional layer of risk to potential investments in this stock.
Disclaimer: This article is not financial advice. Each investor is responsible for their own investment decisions.
Additional Resources
- BigBear.ai (BBAI) Stock Slides 8% As Tech Sell-Off Continues – Benzinga (Nov 17, 2025)
- The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights BigBear.ai, Palantir and C3.ai – Yahoo Finance (Nov 17, 2025)
- Is BigBear.ai Worth Buying at $7? The Answer Is Hidden in the Ask Sage Deal. – The Motley Fool (Nov 17, 2025)
- BigBear.ai Stock Trades at a Discount: Is This a Hidden Opportunity? – Zacks Investment Research (Nov 14, 2025)
- BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Stock Dips While Market Gains: Key Facts – Yahoo Finance (Nov 03, 2025)
For more information about BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc., please visit the official website: bigbear.ai
